I am not sure that one can blame the increase in sales taxes from 5% to 6% for much of the change. For one thing, gasoline is significantly more expensive now than it was last May, and there’s no short way to get to Delaware or PA for most Marylanders. Off of $500.00 in sales, the marginal “delta” of the sales tax hit was at most $5.00. Gasoline roundtrip to Christiana or Rehoboth from the state’s population “center” that’s probably near maybe Millersville has gone up nearly that much on a round trip, even in an economy car. Again, not trying to “troll” or contradict Hancock, just bringing up an alternative theory.

Delaware is said to be growing faster than Maryland, from what I understand. The bankruptcy bill has been kind to its largest sector: credit card lending and processing. But 5% is significant, and constitutes at least some evidence against my hypothesis.

It may simply be that people in MD have less disposable income because of the gas hikes and mild general economic malaise (severe elsewhere). Or they are skittish because their house values are flat or falling. The internet thesis sounds more plausible, because it saves both gasoline and taxes.

The cigarettes are a different matter, since ordering cigarettes through the mail is not only technically illegal but practically very difficult. And the marginal savings from smuggling’s a LOT greater. Also, it’s a question of enforcement priorities. When the tax goes up, both smuggling and the efforts to fight smuggling are more worthwhile for the smuggler and the Comptroller. So it would not surprise me if Comptroller Franchot reallocated resources that way, though that is a HUNCH not knowledge.