Yesterday’s post about a Newt Gingrich interview drew the following response from Bruce of Crablaw:

I agree with Gingrich that it “could” happen, but it seems unlikely.

If Obama wins, he will win with probably 49.5%-53% of the popular vote, unlike Clinton. Nader and Barr combined do not exert the influence that Ross Perot had in 1992, not even close. Similarly, the House and Senate are likely to be more Democratic in 4 months than they were on January 20, 1993. And in the case of the Senate, there are few “easy picks” for the GOP.

Second, Bush I was not well-hated for his military activities; people thoroughly hate Bush II. Objectively, Bush I was much more popular at his low-water mark than his son has been for most of the last twelve months.

Third, and perhaps most tellingly: if 2008 looks like 1964, you will see a decapitation of a large volume of Republican power in the Senate and House in terms of personnel. Gingrich himself was a very solid leader and there is no similar figure in either house who is likely to survive. We don’t see the Kemps, the Kasichs, etc., any more; it’s all theocratic and militarist braying now. The fiscal conservatives are gone and demoralized, especially after this socialist takeover of the financial sector.

I don’t think that the GOP will recover psychologically in 12 months enough to put together a battle plan if Obama wins; I think recriminations, payback and disorder will reign for most of the next four years. But I might be wrong, as I have indeed been quite wrong before.