Daily Kos

Senator Barbara Mikulski will be 74 in 2010. It seems likely she’ll run for reelection, though one never knows; Pete Domenici was running for reelection too, until he decided not to.

If she retires, the race to replace her will likely favor the Democratic candidate. Reps. John Sarbanes and Chris Van Hollen would seem to be possibilities for the seat, as would the exceptionally impressive Lieutenant Governor Anthony G. Brown.

Meanwhile, Governor Martin O’Malley will be running for reelection in 2010.

Republicans have one candidate they like a lot for possible Governor or Senate runs in Maryland – former Lieutenant Governor and current GOPAC head Michael Steele, who lost a 2006 Senate race to Democrat Ben Cardin. As one of very few prominent black Republicans in the country, the GOP loves him.

He lost by nine points in 2006, though, to a pretty generic Democrat in Ben Cardin. The political climate would have to be a lot different for him to beat Van Hollen, Sarbanes or Brown (and this is assuming Mikulski retires, although there’s no special reason to believe she will at this point).

Steele might have a better shot at beating O’Malley; it’s rumored that his old boss, Gov. Bob Ehrlich, is angling for a rematch against O’Malley, the man who defeated him. Regardless of who runs, the incumbent O’Malley should be favored until there’s good reason to think otherwise.

In the House, there will be one race worth watching; Rep.-elect Frank Kratovil in MD-01, who narrowly beat Republican Andy Harris in one of the nation’s closest races. The district defaults Republican; Kratovil could probably beat Harris in a rematch, but might have trouble with a less radical Republican, particularly if that Republican shares his geographical base on the Eastern Shore of Maryland.