Baltimore County is Maryland’s political weather vane, moving whichever way the winds seem to be blowing during any given election.
The county surrounds Baltimore City on three sides. In population, it is the third largest jurisdiction in Maryland, likely home to 800,000 people when the census is taken in 2010.
Baltimore County is a decidedly suburban jurisdiction. Neighborhoods inside the Baltimore Beltway were built-up in the years after the Second World War. Today, much of the development here—in places like Towson, Overlea, Catonsville, and Dundalk—is the result of companies squeezing projects onto the last fingers of open space left from the postwar building binge.
Politically, many of these older neighborhoods are home to the famous “Reagan Democrats.” These socially conservative voters will pick Republicans in many federal elections, but switch back to Democrats for local races. They did it again this year, as Republican nominee John McCain won some of his best margins in eastern Baltimore County.
The most intense development, meanwhile, is occurring on virgin land in the northwest (Owings Mills and Randallstown) and the northeast (Perry Hall and White Marsh). The two areas are quite different in their voting habits. The northwest, home to large numbers of African American and Jewish voters, is bedrock Democratic. The northeast, meanwhile, votes like an extension of Republican Harford County.
The northern third of the county is almost entirely rural except for the ribbon of development along York Road leading to Hunt Valley. This is the county’s Republican heartland, producing such politicians as former Congresswoman Helen Delich Bentley, former gubernatorial candidate Ellen Sauerbrey, and former Governor Bob Ehrlich.
A county this complicated and diverse tends to break for whichever candidate is winning the state. When Bob Ehrlich won the 2002 governor’s race, he captured 62 percent of the vote in Baltimore County, holding the Republican base in northern Baltimore County while slicing into the Democratic northwest and the inner suburbs. Ehrlich won the county four years later, but not with the same margin—and that sealed his fate in a statewide election.
Baltimore County will again play a pivotal role in the 2010 election. Governor O’Malley’s tax increases were very unpopular in Baltimore County, but it will still take a Republican candidate with local appeal to carry the county with enough votes to offset losses elsewhere in the state.
There will also be an election for a new County Executive in 2010.
Baltimore County has historically been led by conservative Democrats (ironically, putting many Republican activists and politicians to the left of those in power). The current Democratic County Executive, Jim Smith, is no exception, raising hundreds of thousands of dollars from the development industry and other business interests.
Smith has broken with the consensus-driven style of his predecessors. His predecessor, Dutch Ruppersberger, actively worked with Republican colleagues. Smith, on the other hand, has been a partisan Baltimore County Executive, playing an active role—some would say the key role—in defeating Ehrlich in 2006. His current chief of staff is Governor O’Malley’s brother.
Political observers believe there are at least three Democrats who may enter the race to succeed Smith, all current members of the County Council: Joseph Bartenfelder, Vince Gardina, and Kevin Kamenetz. Republican Delegate Pat McDonough has also announced.
The County Executive really sets the tone in Baltimore County, and the outcome of this race will say a lot about the direction of Maryland’s most pluralistic jurisdiction.
Bartenfelder represents Parkville, Rosedale, and the booming Baltimore County waterfront. A former delegate, Bartenfelder is the most conservative of the Democratic bunch. He has good relations with many Republicans and would likely mark a return to the Dutch Ruppersberger style of governing.
Gardina has served on the County Council since 1990, longer than anyone else. He represents a district that stretches from Towson to Perry Hall. He has focused on environmental issues during his career. A strongly partisan Democrat, he would differ from Smith mainly on priorities. Gardina would likely emphasize “green” issues like sustainability, recycling, and energy conservation.
Kamenetz represents Owings Mills, Pikesville, and Ruxton. He is very smart and detail-oriented, and definitely one of the leaders on the current County Council. Kamenetz recently impressed community leaders from around the county by leading the opposition to a new sign ordinance. It is tough to predict Kamenetz’s style other than to say he would be a very strong County Executive.
McDonough, the only Republican in the race, is continually underestimated. He is enormously popular in eastern Baltimore County, where he was the top vote-getter among state legislative candidates in 2006. He would be a populist candidate, appealing to socially conservative Democrats and Independents. One model for him as County Executive could be Anne Arundel’s John Leopold, a Republican who has focused on quality of life issues, law and order, and curtailing illegal immigration.
Over the next year, some of these candidates will drop out, and others may enter. The results in 2010 will say a lot about Baltimore County and its role in a very liberal, very Democratic Maryland.
Recent Comments